The UK general election is fast approaching, candidates are kissing babies, pretending they care about the people, and in general sucking up to the media in an attempt to gain favour with the voters.
Conceivably we could have any one of a number of outcomes, this is not a black and white election, in fact it's even more shades of grey than 2010. Will anyone be able to gain a majority in the house, or are we looking at another coalition (where basically no one gets what they want), or possibly worse, a minority government that is unable to get anything done. One thing is for sure, election betting is big business, and not a bad predictor of what the outcome will be come May 8th. |
Current polls make it a tight run race, no one party has really stepped up to gain any real traction, so the thinking is that there is a 93% probability that we're staring down the barrel of a hung parliament (figure taken from BetFair Predicts). That leaves the posibility of either side trying to form a coalition government, but with Labour seemingly distancing themselves from the SNP that leaves a repeat of the current botch job Conservative / Lib Dem marriage as a fairly likely outcome.
The betting exchanges point out that they have called the correct election outcome repeatedly over the last few years. They nailed the Scottish referendum, the last UK general election and the US elections as well. The wisdom of crowds plays a part of course, in essence not to far away from people voting with their bets, but it's interesting that whilst in other years they have announced who they think will win well in advance, this one is too close to call.
That doesn't stop the people placing bets on the outcome. Estimated figures put the expected total of bets to top £100 million by the time the pols close. Large bets on the UK general election have already been announced by the highstreet bookmakers, but of course that's not where you go to get the best odds. In fact, who in their right mind is going to place a £10,000 bet on the highstreet. Looking at the odds offered by Ladbrokes compared to Smarkets on the Conservatives winning the most seats shows that a bet of that size the difference in winnings is £300 (Smarkets 1.23, Ladbrokes 1.2), and that's actually pretty close. If you fancy Labour to win the most seats then Ladbrokes has it at 4.5, Smarkets at 5.3 which is a huge difference.
The picture across the country has changed repeatedly in the last couple of years. The conservatives looked solid, then Labour came sweeping back. Nigel Farrage looked likely to be the new Nick Clegg, now he's only 1.68 to take the South Thanat seat he's contesting (the pub landlord is 500 if you fancy a punt!).
The election system this country has in place may mean your vote is wasted (I'm a big fan of proportional representation), but that doesn't mean your money has to be as well. Go to an exchange not the highstreet, it's a no brainer. Unlike the outcome itself.
Bet on the Conservatives winning the most seats
Bet on Labour winning the most seats
Lay the Lib Dems winning the most seats
Lay Nigel Farrage winning the South Thanet seat
Bet on a majority government
After you've done that, it's time to sit back and enjoy the swingometer..........and hoping we don't have to go through this all again in the next few months.
The betting exchanges point out that they have called the correct election outcome repeatedly over the last few years. They nailed the Scottish referendum, the last UK general election and the US elections as well. The wisdom of crowds plays a part of course, in essence not to far away from people voting with their bets, but it's interesting that whilst in other years they have announced who they think will win well in advance, this one is too close to call.
That doesn't stop the people placing bets on the outcome. Estimated figures put the expected total of bets to top £100 million by the time the pols close. Large bets on the UK general election have already been announced by the highstreet bookmakers, but of course that's not where you go to get the best odds. In fact, who in their right mind is going to place a £10,000 bet on the highstreet. Looking at the odds offered by Ladbrokes compared to Smarkets on the Conservatives winning the most seats shows that a bet of that size the difference in winnings is £300 (Smarkets 1.23, Ladbrokes 1.2), and that's actually pretty close. If you fancy Labour to win the most seats then Ladbrokes has it at 4.5, Smarkets at 5.3 which is a huge difference.
The picture across the country has changed repeatedly in the last couple of years. The conservatives looked solid, then Labour came sweeping back. Nigel Farrage looked likely to be the new Nick Clegg, now he's only 1.68 to take the South Thanat seat he's contesting (the pub landlord is 500 if you fancy a punt!).
The election system this country has in place may mean your vote is wasted (I'm a big fan of proportional representation), but that doesn't mean your money has to be as well. Go to an exchange not the highstreet, it's a no brainer. Unlike the outcome itself.
Bet on the Conservatives winning the most seats
Bet on Labour winning the most seats
Lay the Lib Dems winning the most seats
Lay Nigel Farrage winning the South Thanet seat
Bet on a majority government
After you've done that, it's time to sit back and enjoy the swingometer..........and hoping we don't have to go through this all again in the next few months.