Snowball Betting
I don't like tipsters. For all they say, they don't want you to win. Tipsters want you to lose.
Bookmakers love tipsters as much as they love accumulators, and they really love accumulators. Of all the different types of tipsters there is one that I rank above all others as the worst of a bad breed; The Snowball Tipster. |
Snowball betting (also known as rolling accumulators) is a gimmick whereby you start with a small amount (normally around £10) and through a series of bets aim to turn it into £1,000 or £10,000. Of course this is perfectly possible (though statistically unlikely), but using the standard odds on technique you're looking at 50+ bets, with each bet rolling on from the last, hence the snowball. This should not be confused with snowballig, which will bring up a different set of hits on google, including one on Wikipedia with a lovely image.
Back to snowball betting, there is no guarantee that you are going to hit all these odds on bets. Sometimes the favourite, however fancied, doesn't get the win you need. Sometimes a horse, even against a field of three legged donkeys, falls. Sometimes Manchester United get beaten by MK Dons. Sometimes Milan throw away three goal leads in the European Cup final. Odds on means something is likely to happen fairly frequently if it was run many times over in the same conditions, it certainly doesn't mean guaranteed.
Add into that the fact that the bookmaker still needs his margin. If a bookmaker offers you evens (1/1) on an event, the odds of it happening are actually less that 50/50. As an example, no bookmaker is going to offer you evens on a the flip of a coin, there's no margin in it for them. The true odds and the odds offered are always going to be different.
Regardless of all that though, my main issue with snowball betting (and tipsters in general), is that they want you to lose. Of course the bookmaker wants you to lose, that's a given (bookmakers don't tend to make the perfect book where they win regardless of outcome, they tend to make more if you lose and are basically playing the odds.......that they create). But did you realise the tipster wants you to lose as well? Or did you think they're giving away (or in some cases even charging!) knowledge of 'winners' out of some altruistic desire to 'beat the bookies'?
Tipsters make money through affiliate programmes with the bookmakers. The majority of these work on the principal of net revenue, so if a referred customer loses, then the person or site that referred is paid a % of that loss. On that basis, the tipster will not make any money by giving you winning bets.
The beauty, from the point of view of the tipster, of snowball betting is that they can get large revenues from relatively small initial deposits from their referred customers.
Say a tipster has 100 referred accounts. If 100 people deposit £10 and bet it on Liverpool to win and they lose, then their affiliate account would be showing £1,000 company win. A standard rev share of 25% would mean an affiliate payment of £250. Not insignificant, but not enough to start thinking about retirement.
What if those 100 referred customers were following a snowball betting tipster though. The same £10 deposits by those 100 referred accounts might be turned into many £1,000s which eventualy lose. The key here is for the tipster to straddle the bets across more than one month. You start towards the end of the month and build the customers bankroll up with a series of low risk wagers to turn that initial £10 deposits into say £100. When the new month starts most affilaite schemes will reset with any losses wiped out. That means that essentially those 100 customers now have £10,000 on deposit that they're risking based on the tipsters tips. The next bet that loses means a net rev for the tipster of £10,000 and a payout of £2,500.
The tipster wants you to lose, it's their only way of making money.
Following a tipster is what mug punters do, it doesn't make you beat the bookies, the bookies will love you. Have you ever had your account gubbed (limited) whilst following a tipster? I bet the answer to that is no, and that's because you're not winning, you're losing, the bookmaker and the tipsters are the ones that are winning.
The only way of beating the bookmakers is by using matched betting and advantage play. Sure the wins might not get the headlines quite like a £10 to £1,000 challenge will, but your risk is minimal and you'll make consistant profits which can certainly run into the £1,000s per month.
Sign up to The Gambling Times and start using knowledge and simple maths to start beating the bookies, rather than the whims of someone who actually wants you to lose.
Back to snowball betting, there is no guarantee that you are going to hit all these odds on bets. Sometimes the favourite, however fancied, doesn't get the win you need. Sometimes a horse, even against a field of three legged donkeys, falls. Sometimes Manchester United get beaten by MK Dons. Sometimes Milan throw away three goal leads in the European Cup final. Odds on means something is likely to happen fairly frequently if it was run many times over in the same conditions, it certainly doesn't mean guaranteed.
Add into that the fact that the bookmaker still needs his margin. If a bookmaker offers you evens (1/1) on an event, the odds of it happening are actually less that 50/50. As an example, no bookmaker is going to offer you evens on a the flip of a coin, there's no margin in it for them. The true odds and the odds offered are always going to be different.
Regardless of all that though, my main issue with snowball betting (and tipsters in general), is that they want you to lose. Of course the bookmaker wants you to lose, that's a given (bookmakers don't tend to make the perfect book where they win regardless of outcome, they tend to make more if you lose and are basically playing the odds.......that they create). But did you realise the tipster wants you to lose as well? Or did you think they're giving away (or in some cases even charging!) knowledge of 'winners' out of some altruistic desire to 'beat the bookies'?
Tipsters make money through affiliate programmes with the bookmakers. The majority of these work on the principal of net revenue, so if a referred customer loses, then the person or site that referred is paid a % of that loss. On that basis, the tipster will not make any money by giving you winning bets.
The beauty, from the point of view of the tipster, of snowball betting is that they can get large revenues from relatively small initial deposits from their referred customers.
Say a tipster has 100 referred accounts. If 100 people deposit £10 and bet it on Liverpool to win and they lose, then their affiliate account would be showing £1,000 company win. A standard rev share of 25% would mean an affiliate payment of £250. Not insignificant, but not enough to start thinking about retirement.
What if those 100 referred customers were following a snowball betting tipster though. The same £10 deposits by those 100 referred accounts might be turned into many £1,000s which eventualy lose. The key here is for the tipster to straddle the bets across more than one month. You start towards the end of the month and build the customers bankroll up with a series of low risk wagers to turn that initial £10 deposits into say £100. When the new month starts most affilaite schemes will reset with any losses wiped out. That means that essentially those 100 customers now have £10,000 on deposit that they're risking based on the tipsters tips. The next bet that loses means a net rev for the tipster of £10,000 and a payout of £2,500.
The tipster wants you to lose, it's their only way of making money.
Following a tipster is what mug punters do, it doesn't make you beat the bookies, the bookies will love you. Have you ever had your account gubbed (limited) whilst following a tipster? I bet the answer to that is no, and that's because you're not winning, you're losing, the bookmaker and the tipsters are the ones that are winning.
The only way of beating the bookmakers is by using matched betting and advantage play. Sure the wins might not get the headlines quite like a £10 to £1,000 challenge will, but your risk is minimal and you'll make consistant profits which can certainly run into the £1,000s per month.
Sign up to The Gambling Times and start using knowledge and simple maths to start beating the bookies, rather than the whims of someone who actually wants you to lose.