In the close season, and with reference to betting, the questions normally being asked are, who will win the premier league? And who will be relegated from the premier league?
A friend asked me yesterday about whether either of them were a good bet, and I said not really. In terms of outrights at this stage, it's too difficult to call.
All we really know is that it would be a miracle if the premier league winner didn't come out of; Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City or Manchester Utd.
Well, my friend asked, why don't we just lay the rest of the teams then?
A good question, I said..................but there are thousands of very good reasons for not doing that.
If you take a longshot bet from someone on BetFair, for instance from some die hard West Brom fan that thinks they can win the league, then you are offering them the maximum odds of 1000/1. BetFair doesn't care that West Brom won't win the league, they are a middle man bringing people who bet together. They will deduct the £1,998 liability from your balance once you've accepted the bet (there's a £2 minimum bet on the exchange).
Come May when West Brom haven't won the Premier League you will collect your £2 win, and the liability amount will be returned to your account as well. You'll have tied up nearly £2,000 for 10 months for what, approximately 0.1% interest, with a small risk that you'd lose it all.
At £2 minimum stakes on the 15 teams that won't win the Premier League you'd have a; £158 liability on Tottenham, £358 liability on Everton and £1998 liability on Newcastle and every single other team in the league. So for a potential win of £30 you would be risking (and tying up in BetFair) over £26,000 from August to May!
That is why you don't lay the 15 Premier League teams that won't win the title. You don't have the capital or the other bets coming in to make a complete book and make it work.
What you should be doing is combining bookmaker bonuses and matched betting to make a profit. It's why you should be using if bets and bore draw refunds rather than tipsters.
Making a book using the top 5 teams, backing and laying and using price boosts can be done though, and I'll show you mine in a future blog post..........
Fancy staking over £26,000 to win £30 over the course of the Premier League season? Or do you just want the best odds on your football betting and great sign up bonuses for the sporstbook, betting exchange and casino? Either way, sign up to BetFair.
Aston Villa won't win the Premier League
Burnley won't win the Premier League
Crystal Palace won't win the Premier League
Everton won't win the Premier League
Hull won't win the Premier League
Leicester won't win the Premier League
Newcastle won't win the Premier League
QPR won't win the Premier League
Southampton won't win the Premier League
Stoke won't win the Premier League
Sunderland won't win the Premier League
Swansea won't win the Premier League
Tottenham won't win the Premier League
West Brom won't win the Premier League
West Ham won't win the Premier League
Might as well complete the set and my predictions....................
Arsenal could win the Premier League (but won't)
Chelsea could win the Premier League (and should)
Liverpool could win the Premier League (but had their chance last year and won't get another this year)
Manchester City could win the Premier League (and if Chelsea don't then they will)
Manchester Utd could win the Premier League (will knock someone else out of the top 4, but won't win the league)